The war that was supposed to stay confined to Iran’s borders has instead landed in the swimming pools and shopping malls of Dubai, the refinery control rooms of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, and the departure lounges of Bahrain International Airport.
Four days into the conflict triggered by the US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Arab states of the Gulf are waking up to a new and terrifying reality. They are not bystanders in this war. They are the battlefield.
Iran, unable to match American and Israeli air power, has executed a strategy its officials telegraphed for months: if attacked, it would set the entire region ablaze. The message from Tehran is unmistakable: “the gates of hell” are open, and they are opening onto the luxury high-rises and critical infrastructure of America’s Gulf allies.
The UAE: Palm Jumeirah Under Fire
For the United Arab Emirates, the war arrived with a bang heard around the world—not at a military base, but at a resort on Palm Jumeirah. This artificial archipelago has become a global symbol of Gulf excess and ambition.
On Saturday, a suicide drone struck the complex. It was one of hundreds of projectiles Iran has hurled at the Emirates. The defense ministry says it has “dealt with” 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and 541 drones. But numbers don’t capture the fear.
“It’s surreal,” one resident of the Palm told me in a text message. “We came here because it was safe. Now we’re watching missiles from our balconies.”
Three people—from Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh—have been killed in the UAE, with 58 others wounded. Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest for international travel, sustained damage and remains closed. An offshore oil platform was reportedly hit. In Sharjah, black smoke rose from an industrial area warehouse.
The Iranians claim they are only targeting “US presence,” but their definition is expansive. The French naval base in the UAE was also attacked. For a country that has built its entire post-oil future on stability, tourism, and logistics, the damage is not just physical. It is existential.
“This is Dubai’s ultimate nightmare, as its very essence depended on being a safe oasis in a troubled region,” Cinzia Bianco, an expert on the Persian Gulf at the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote on X.
Saudi Arabia: The Refinery Burns
Saudi Arabia has long feared that it would be caught in the crossfire of any US-Iran conflict. Those fears are now realized.
On Monday, Iranian drones targeted the Ras Tanura Refinery, one of the world’s largest oil export facilities, owned by Saudi Aramco. Satellite imagery shows the aftermath: a facility that produces more than 550,000 barrels per day temporarily shut down, smoke rising over a site so critical to global energy markets that its name is spoken in whispers by traders.
Two drones were intercepted before they could strike, but debris rained down, sparking fires. It was a shot across the bow—or perhaps directly at the bow.
Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry confirmed that eight drones were destroyed near Riyadh and Al-Kharj. The US Embassy in Riyadh was also targeted by two drones, sparking a limited fire and causing minor material damage to the building.
The kingdom’s response has been furious. In a statement, the government expressed “rejection and condemnation in the strongest terms” of what it called “blatant and cowardly Iranian attacks”. This is not the first time Saudi energy infrastructure has been hit—the 2019 Abqaiq attack temporarily knocked out half the kingdom’s output. But this feels different. This feels like war.
“The attack on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery marks a significant escalation, with Gulf energy infrastructure now squarely in Iran’s sights,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told Reuters.
Bahrain and Qatar: The Fifth Fleet and the Air Base
Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, has been pummeled. A friend of BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner texted him Sunday morning after a sleepless night: “Woken by huge bangs and wailing siren. I think maybe around 20 booms and bangs. At least two hits”.
Bahrain International Airport was struck by a drone, causing material damage. In Manama, a kamikaze drone hit a building on Al-Ma’arid Street. Iran’s state media claimed a strike on Salman Port, alleging it was being used to transport American equipment.
Qatar, which hosts the massive Al Udeid air base, has also been targeted. The defense ministry intercepted two ballistic missiles early Tuesday. Sixteen injuries have been reported. During the June 2025 war, Iran fired missiles at Al Udeid but gave advance warning—a “performative response,” as analysts called it. This time, there is nothing performative about it.
Oman, Kuwait, and the Unseen Wounds
Even Oman, which has long served as a trusted mediator between Tehran and Washington, has not been spared. A drone strike hit the commercial port of Duqm on the Arabian Sea coast. A Palau-flagged oil tanker north of Khasab Port was attacked, injuring four. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Al Busaidi, insists “the door to diplomacy remains open”. But diplomacy is harder when your ports are burning.
Kuwait has also suffered. One person has been killed, 32 injured.
Across the region, the toll is mounting. Three dead in the UAE, one in Kuwait, two in Iraq, dozens injured across half a dozen countries. These numbers may seem small compared to the more than 780 reported dead inside Iran. But for Gulf states that have spent decades insulating themselves from the region’s conflicts, every casualty is a breach of the social contract.
The Strategy and the Backlash
Iran’s calculus is clear. Unable to defeat the US and Israel militarily, it is trying to make the war too costly for Washington’s regional partners to bear. Hit the airports, hit the refineries, hit the luxury hotels. Make the war real for the Gulf elites who have long watched Middle East conflicts from a safe distance.
“They want to incur costs on everyone involved. It’s like a scorched-earth strategy,” Bader Al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, told The Wall Street Journal. “They’re trying their best to show that if we’re going down, you’re going down with us”.
But so far, the strategy appears to be backfiring. Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers have issued a joint statement vowing to take “all necessary measures to defend their security and stability, including the option of responding to the aggression”. European powers—the UK, France, and Germany are inching closer to direct involvement after Iranian drones attacked British bases in Cyprus.
Iran has spent years trying to convince its neighbors that it should be the guardian of Gulf security, not the United States. After four days of missile strikes on their airports, refineries, and residential neighborhoods, that argument is dead.
For the rulers of the Gulf states, conservative, dynastic monarchies who have always viewed the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary zeal with deep suspicion, a line has been crossed. As Frank Gardner put it, “It is hard to see how they can ever have anything approaching normal relations again with the current Iranian leadership, that is, if it survives this war”.
The war is only four days old. The skies above the Gulf are streaked with contrails that are not carrying tourists. And the people below are learning to live with a sound they never thought they’d hear: the wail of air raid sirens over the world’s most prosperous cities.
