San Diego drivers are once again feeling the squeeze at the pump, with gas prices skyrocketing to their highest level since November as the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran sends shockwaves through global energy markets.
The average price for a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline in San Diego County jumped a staggering 8.7 cents Thursday, marking the largest single-day increase since September 28, 2023. That spike pushed the local average to $4.894, a painful reminder of just how vulnerable America’s gas tanks are to turmoil on the other side of the planet.
But this isn’t a one-day blip. We’re now looking at 15 consecutive days of increases, with prices climbing a whopping 28.7 cents over that stretch. Compared to just one month ago, San Diegans are paying nearly 39 cents more per gallon.
The national picture isn’t much prettier. The average price across the U.S. climbed to $3.251, the highest since September 2024, after five straight days of increases totaling nearly 27 cents. That’s the kind of weekly jump we haven’t seen since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict back in March 2022.
Iran Conflict Ignites Oil Markets: 20% of Global Supply at Risk
The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman is the jugular of global oil trade, with roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passing through it daily. When the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, Tehran responded exactly how energy analysts feared by threatening shipping lanes and targeting regional energy infrastructure.
“We will not allow a single drop of oil to flow from this region,” a senior Iranian commander warned, and the market took those words seriously. Iran has already struck energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia and disrupted tanker traffic through the strait, sending global oil and natural gas prices into orbit.
“Confidence is the name of the game when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, and nobody really has confidence right now to transit through the strait,” explained Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “That’s why oil prices are reacting.”
Benchmark U.S. crude jumped 8.6% to $77.36 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, soared 6.7% to $81.29. For context, that’s levels not seen in more than a year.
“Any conflict with Iran can send oil prices higher, as Iran is a major oil producer,” said Kandace Redd, the Automobile Club of Southern California’s senior public affairs specialist.
The Perfect Storm: Summer Blend Transition Hits at the Worst Possible Time
The Middle East crisis isn’t happening in isolation it’s colliding with an annual ritual that always hurts: the switch to summer-blend gasoline.
Refineries across California are beginning the seasonal transition to more expensive summer-blend fuel, a cleaner-burning formulation required by environmental regulations to reduce smog during warmer months. This switch alone can add 15 to 30 cents per gallon to prices.
“That’s a bad combination,” warned University of San Diego economics professor Alan Gin. “If you have gas prices rising due to the disruption and then the transition to the summer blend, that could be a big sticker shock for California drivers.”
Add to that the typical springtime increase in demand as more people hit the road, and you’ve got a recipe for sustained pain at the pump.
Southern California also faces local supply concerns following the closure of the Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles, which stopped processing crude in mid-October. That loss of capacity, combined with planned and unplanned refinery maintenance, has tightened local supplies.
“Usually when gas prices spike, Southern California receives additional imported supplies from Asia and Canada to make up the fall,” Shupe explained. “Prices should reverse course once that happens.”
$1 Million Per Cent: What Higher Gas Prices Mean for San Diego’s Economy
For every one-cent increase in gas prices, the local economy loses approximately $1 million per month.
That’s economics professor Alan Gin’s calculation based on how consumers redirect spending when fuel eats up more of their budget.
“People are then spending that money on gasoline when they could have been eating out or buying clothes,” Gin said.
For real people like Jo Nava, a Mesa College student, those trade-offs hit close to home. “I definitely would notice that,” Nava told CBS 8. “I don’t think I’d be able to afford a little In-N-Out, which I just had, so that would be a bummer.”
The impact ripples far beyond fast food. Every dollar spent on unexpectedly high gas prices is a dollar not spent at local restaurants, retail shops, or entertainment venues. Multiply that by millions of drivers, and you’re talking about a significant drag on the regional economy.
De Haan warns that retail gas prices could climb by 5 to 10 cents daily in the short term, potentially resulting in a 30-cent increase by week’s end. Diesel prices may climb even higher, as much as 50 cents, which will eventually translate to higher costs for everything shipped by truck.
How Long Will This Last? Experts Weigh In on the Outlook
The good news, according to De Haan, is that the price surge may be temporary if the situation stabilizes. “Unfortunately, we do have some higher prices coming for both gasoline and diesel, but it likely will be temporary as well,” he said.
The bad news is that “temporary” could mean weeks, not days. Crude price increases typically take about 20 days to be fully reflected at the pump, according to 2019 research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. A $ 10-per-barrel increase generally translates to about a 25-cent rise per gallon.
California drivers are also stuck with the state’s unique regulatory premium. The state’s taxes and fees add about $1.43 per gallon to the price, according to the Center for Jobs and the Economy. Carbon taxes under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Cap-and-Trade program add another 42 cents per gallon.
That’s why San Diego prices consistently run well above the national average. While drivers in Kentucky are paying around $2.68 and Arizonans around $3.36, San Diegans are closing in on $5.
For now, experts advise drivers to shop around. GasBuddy tracks the cheapest stations in real time, and some San Diego stations like Horizon Fuel Center in Valley Center were recently offering gas for under $4. Those deals may become harder to find as the crisis continues.
“We’re heading into the spring break season with more people on the road,” Redd noted, which means demand and prices could stay elevated.
As long as missiles fly over the Strait of Hormuz, prices at your local pump will feel the impact.
